Life expectancy at 50: current smokers trail never smokers by 7.70 years

At age 50, people who had never smoked had an estimated total life expectancy 7.70 years longer than people who still smoked. That figure counts the years a person has left after turning 50. It is not the total age a person reaches. The 2026 study tracked 175,318 adults in 28 countries and compared the life expectancy of smokers with people who quit or never smoked 1. People who had quit fell in between 1.

Life expectancy of smokers vs non smokers at 50

Figure 1 shows the three groups side by side, using what the study calls total life expectancy. Never smokers could expect 36.04 more years, while former smokers could expect 33.03. Current smokers trailed both, at 28.34 1.

A note on terms: a confidence interval is the range where the true number likely sits.

From the study. For the gap between never smokers and current smokers, the 95% confidence interval ran from 7.45 to 7.95 years. 1

The authors list possible biases, such as missed deaths, that could affect these estimates 1.

Who was in the study

The paper pooled six long-running studies of aging. Together they covered adults aged 50 and older across 28 countries. The researchers followed people for a mean of 8.22 years 1. To estimate the years left, they used a statistical model. It follows people from one survey wave to the next, about every two years, as their health and work status change, until death.

Smoking was not the main subject. The paper is about healthy working life expectancy. That is the years people can expect to stay healthy and in paid work. Smoking was one of many factors the team checked 1.

What quitting looks like in the data

In total life expectancy, former smokers did not fully catch up with never smokers. But they did much better than people who still smoked when they joined the study.

From the study. Former smokers had a 4.69-year higher total life expectancy than current smokers, with a 95% confidence interval of 4.42 to 4.96 years. 1

In this study, ex-smoker life expectancy landed closer to never smokers than to current smokers. The finding compares groups, though. It does not tell any one person how many years they would gain by quitting at a certain age.

What this study cannot prove

This was an observational study. It watched what happened to people over time. It did not assign anyone to smoke or to quit. So it can show a link, but it cannot prove that smoking caused the gap 1.

The smoking figures compare groups of people sorted by smoking status 1. Smokers and non-smokers may differ in other ways too. So part of the gap may come from those other differences.

The study also started at age 50. It says nothing about smoking and life expectancy at younger ages.

The numbers describe the people in these six studies across 28 countries. The team did not apply survey weights, because the six studies built them in different ways. The authors also note that the studies sampled people differently and that some countries had small samples 1.